Author Archives:

New paper on coupled human-natural systems modelling

Figure6We published a new paper on Water Resources Research about coupling natural and human systems to model agricultural systems evolutions under change. We contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta-models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human-natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The approach was demonstrated on the Lake Como systems. More here

Giuliani, M., Li, Y., Castelletti, A. and Gandolfi, C. (2016), A coupled human-natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate. Water Resour. Res.. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1002/2016WR019363


This paWater Resources Researchper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes, but also enables an assessment of a system’s upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. Read more here.

Culley, S., Noble, S., Yates, A., Timbs, M., Westra, S., Maier, H.R., Giuliani, M. and Castelletti, A. (2016), A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate. Water Resour. Res.. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1002/2015WR018253